Jonathan J. Koehler (1993) The Base Rate Fallacy Myth
. Psycoloquy: 4(49) Base Rate (1)
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Psycoloquy 4(49): The Base Rate Fallacy Myth
THE BASE RATE FALLACY MYTH
Target Article by Koehler on Base-Rate
Jonathan J. Koehler
Department of Management Science and Information Systems
University of Texas at Austin
Austin TX 78712-1175
Koehler@utxvm.cc.utexas.edu
Abstract
We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in
probabilistic judgment. First, few tasks map unambiguously into the
simple, narrow framework that is held up as the standard of good
decision making. Second, the literature does not support the widely
held belief that people ignore base rates. Third, we know very
little about how the ambiguous, unreliable and unstable base rates
of the real world are and should be used by decision makers who
have complex performance goals. It is suggested that the existing
research paradigm be replaced by an empirical program that examines
real world base rate usage and embraces more flexible standards of
acceptable performance.
Keywords
Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making,
ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.
References