Craig R. M. McKenzie (1994) Base Rates Versus Prior Beliefs in Bayesian Inference
. Psycoloquy: 5(01) Base Rate (6)
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Psycoloquy 5(01): Base Rates Versus Prior Beliefs in Bayesian Inference
BASE RATES VERSUS PRIOR BELIEFS IN BAYESIAN INFERENCE
Commentary on Koehler on Base-Rate
Craig R. M. McKenzie
Department of Psychology
University of Chicago
Center for Decision Research
1101 E. 58th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
fac_mckenzie@gsbvax.uchicago.edu
Abstract
The distinction between prior beliefs and base rates is
often blurred in the literature on judgment and decision making and
can account for some apparently contradictory conclusions regarding
behavior in Bayesian tasks.
Keywords
Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making,
ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.
References
- Anderson, N.H. (1981). Foundations of Information Integration Theory. New York: Academic Press.
- Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). The Base-rate Fallacy in Probability Judgments. Acta Psychologica, 44, 211-233.
- Beyth-Marom, R., & Fischhoff, B. (1983). Diagnosticity and Pseudo-diagnosticity. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 1185-1195.
- Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in Human Information Processing. In B. Kleinmuntz (Ed.), Formal Representation of Human Judgment (pp. 17-52). New York: Wiley.
- Gigerenzer, G. (in press). Why the Distinction Between Single-event Probabilities and Frequencies is Important for Psychology (and vice versa). In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective Probability. New York: Wiley.
- Hogarth, R.M., & Einhorn, H.J. (1992). Order Effects in Belief- updating: The Belief-adjustment Model. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 1-55.
- Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
- Koehler. J.J. (1993). The Base Rate Fallacy Myth. PSYCOLOQUY 4(49) base-rate.1.koehler.
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- McKenzie, C.R.M. (in press). The Accuracy of Intuitive Judgment Strategies: Covariation Assessment and Bayesian Inference. Cognitive Psychology.
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Evidential Impact of Base Rates. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 153-160). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.