STEREOTYPES AS BASE RATE PREDICTIONS
Commentary on Koehler on Base-Rate

Abstract

Doubts have been raised about whether or when stereotypes, identified as baserate predictions, can affect judgment about an individual member of a stereotyped group. This commentary argues that stereotypes are more than baserate predictions and, more important, that it is not clear what is baserate and what is individuating information when looking at a member of a stereotyped group. The ambiguity in defining baserate in stereotype studies stems from a similar ambiguity in the research in cognitive psychology that first suggested human neglect of baserates. Without independent definition of what is meant by baserate information, the hypothesis that baserates are neglected is empirically empty and cannot contribute to understanding of stereotype effects.

Keywords

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• VIII. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
• My thanks to Jonathan Baron for helpful suggestions about an earlier version of this paper.