Jonathan J. Koehler (1994) Base Rates and the "illusion Illusion"
. Psycoloquy: 5(09) Base Rate (9)
Versions: ASCII formatted
Psycoloquy 5(09): Base Rates and the "illusion Illusion"
BASE RATES AND THE "ILLUSION ILLUSION"
Reply to Ayton, Gregson, Hamm, Koonce, McCauley, McKenzie & Spellman
on Koehler on Base-Rates
Jonathan J. Koehler
Department of Management Science and Information Systems
University of Texas at Austin
Austin TX 78712-1175
Koehler@utxvm.cc.utexas.edu
Abstract
None of the commentators so far has been willing to
defend the base rate fallacy. Instead, most offered evidence,
theories and criticism reinforcing the view that the existing base
rate research program is misleading and in need of examination in
ecologically relevant environments.
Keywords
Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making,
ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.
References
- Ayton, P. (1993) Base Rate Neglect: An Insider View of Judgment? PSYCOLOQUY 4(63) base-rate.5.ayton.
- Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J. & Beach, L.R. (1982) Experience and the Base-rate Fallacy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 29:270-278.
- Christensen-Szalanski, J.J.J. & Bushyhead, J.B. (1981) Physicians' Use of Probabilistic Information in a Real Clinical Setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 7:928-935.
- Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (in press) Are Humans Good Intuitive Statisticians After All? Rethinking Some Conclusions from the Literature on Judgment Under Uncertainty. Cognition.
- Gigerenzer, G. (1991) How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond "Heuristics and Biases." European Review of Social Psychology 2:83-115.
- Gigerenzer, G. (November, 1992) Where Do We Go From Here: After Heuristics and Biases. Paper presented at the meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, St. Louis, MO.
- Gigerenzer, G. (in press) Why the Distinction Between Single-event Probabilities and Frequencies is Important for Psychology (and Vice Versa). To appear in G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective Probability. New York: Wiley.
- Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W. & Blank, H. (1988) Presentation and Content: The Use of Base Rates as a Continuous Variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 14:513-525.
- Gigerenzer, G. & Murray, D.J. (1987) Cognition as Intuitive Statistics. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
- Gregson, R.A.M. (1993) Which Bayesian Theorem Could Be Compared With Real Behaviour. PSYCOLOQUY 4(50) base-rate.2.gregson.
- Hamm, R.M. (1994) Underweighting of Base-rate Information Reflects Important Difficulties People Have With Probabilistic Inference. PSYCOLOQUY 5(3) base-rate.7.hamm.
- Kahneman, D. & Lovallo, D. (1993) Timid Choice and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking. Management Science, 39, 17-31.
- Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1973) On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review 80:237-251.
- Koehler, J.J. (1993a) The Base Rate Fallacy Myth. PSYCOLOQUY 4(49) base-rate.1.koehler
- Koehler, J.J. (1993b) The Base Rate Fallacy Reconsidered: Normative, descriptive and methodological challenges. Unpublished manuscript.
- Koehler, J.J. (in press) Error and Exaggeration in the Presentation of DNA Evidence at Trail. Jurimetrics.
- Koonce, L.L. (1993) Base Rate Usage in Accounting. PSYCOLOQUY 4(51) base-rate.3.koonce.
- Lindeman, S.T., Van Den Brink, W.P. & Hoogstraten, J. (1988) Effect of Feedback on Base-rate Utilization. Perceptual and Motor Skills 67:343-350.
- Locksley, A., Borgida, E., Brekke, N. & Hepburn, C. (1980) Sex Stereotypes and Social Judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39:821-831.
- Macchi, L. (November, 1991) The Base-rate Fallacy and the Discourse Structure of Problems. Paper presented at the meeting of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, San Francisco, CA.
- Manis, M., Dovalina, I., Avis, N.E. & Cardoze, S. (1980) Base Rates Can Affect Individual Predictions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 38:231-248.
- McCauley, C. (1994) Stereotypes as Base Rate Predictions. PSYCOLOQUY 5(5) base-rate.8.mccauley.
- McKenzie, C.R.M. (1994) Base Rates Versus Prior Beliefs in Bayesian Inference. PSYCOLOQUY 5(1) base-rate.6.mckenzie.
- McKenzie, C.R.M. (in press) The Accuracy of Intuitive Judgment Strategies: Covariation Assessment and Bayesian Inference. Cognitive Psychology.
- Medin, D.L. & Edelson, S.M. (1988) Problem Structure and the Use of Base-rate Information from Experience. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:68-85.
- Rasinski, K.A., Crocker, J. & Hastie, R. (1985) Another Look at Sex Stereotypes and Social Judgments: An Analysis of the Social Perceiver's Use of Subjective Probabilities. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49:317-326.
- Spellman. B. A. (1993) Implicit Learning of Base Rates. PSYCOLOQUY 4(61) base-rate.4.spellman.
- Wells, G.L. & Harvey, J.H. (1978) Naive Attributors' Attributions and Predictions: What Is Informative and When Is an Effect an Effect? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36:483-490.