Jonathan J. Koehler (1994) Base Rates and the "illusion Illusion" . Psycoloquy: 5(09) Base Rate (9)
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Psycoloquy 5(09): Base Rates and the "illusion Illusion"

BASE RATES AND THE "ILLUSION ILLUSION"
Reply to Ayton, Gregson, Hamm, Koonce, McCauley, McKenzie & Spellman
on Koehler on Base-Rates

Jonathan J. Koehler
Department of Management Science and Information Systems
University of Texas at Austin
Austin TX 78712-1175

Koehler@utxvm.cc.utexas.edu

Abstract

None of the commentators so far has been willing to defend the base rate fallacy. Instead, most offered evidence, theories and criticism reinforcing the view that the existing base rate research program is misleading and in need of examination in ecologically relevant environments.

Keywords

Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making, ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.

References