Jonathan J. Koehler (1994) Fallacy Under Fire: Round 2
. Psycoloquy: 5(21) Base Rate (13)
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Psycoloquy 5(21): Fallacy Under Fire: Round 2
FALLACY UNDER FIRE: ROUND 2
Jonathan J. Koehler
Reply to Fletcher, Funder and Macchi on Base-rate
Department of Management Science &
University of Texas at Austin
Austin TX 78712-1175
Commentators Fletcher, Funder and Macchi question the
significance of laboratory studies that purportedly demonstrate
failings in human probabilistic judgment. Fletcher and Funder
challenge the usefulness of Bayes' theorem for
assessing human judgment and Funder offers alternative standards.
Macchi does not challenge the standard, but argues that the alleged
base rate fallacy arises from ambiguous information transmission in
the laboratory problems. These commentaries bolster conclusions
drawn in the target article and suggest that we do not yet
understand how well people reason in real-world base rate tasks.
Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making,
ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.