Jonathan J. Koehler (1994) Fallacy Under Fire: Round 2
. Psycoloquy: 5(21) Base Rate (13)
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Psycoloquy 5(21): Fallacy Under Fire: Round 2
FALLACY UNDER FIRE: ROUND 2
Reply to Fletcher, Funder and Macchi on Base-rate
Jonathan J. Koehler
Department of Management Science &
Information Systems
University of Texas at Austin
Austin TX 78712-1175
Koehler@utxvm.cc.utexas.edu
Abstract
Commentators Fletcher, Funder and Macchi question the
significance of laboratory studies that purportedly demonstrate
failings in human probabilistic judgment. Fletcher and Funder
challenge the usefulness of Bayes' theorem for
assessing human judgment and Funder offers alternative standards.
Macchi does not challenge the standard, but argues that the alleged
base rate fallacy arises from ambiguous information transmission in
the laboratory problems. These commentaries bolster conclusions
drawn in the target article and suggest that we do not yet
understand how well people reason in real-world base rate tasks.
Keywords
Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making,
ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.
References
- Bower, B. (1994) Roots of Reasons: Our Daily Deliberations Provoke Scientific Debate. Science News, 145, 72-75.
- Fletcher, G.J.O. (1994) Assessing Error in Social Judgment: Commentary on Koehler on Base-rate. PSYCOLOQUY (5)10 base-rate.10.fletcher.
- Funder, D.C. (1994) Judgmental Process and Content: Commentary on Koehler on Base-rate. PSYCOLOQUY (5)17 base-rate.12.funder.
- Gigerenzer, G. (Nov, 1992) Where Do We Go From Here? After Heuristics and Biases. Paper presented at the Judgment/Decision Making Society meeting, St. Louis.
- Josephs, R.A., Larrick, R.P., Steele, C.M. & Nisbett, R.E. (1992) Protecting the Self from the Negative Consequences of Risky Decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 26-37.
- Kahneman, D. (Nov, 1992) Commentary on Gigerenzer's paper. Judgment/Decision Making Society meeting, St. Louis.
- Koehler, J.J. (1993) The Base Rate Fallacy Myth. PSYCOLOQUY (4)49 base-rate.1.koehler.
- Macchi, L. (1994) On the Communication and Comprehension of Probabilistic Information: Commentary on Koehler on Base-rate. PSYCOLOQUY (5)11 base-rate.11.macchi.