Robert A. M. Gregson (1993) Which Bayesian Theorem Could be Compared With Real Behaviour?
. Psycoloquy: 4(50) Base Rate (2)
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Psycoloquy 4(50): Which Bayesian Theorem Could be Compared With Real Behaviour?
WHICH BAYESIAN THEOREM COULD BE COMPARED WITH REAL BEHAVIOUR?
Robert A. M. Gregson
Commentary on Koehler on Base-Rate
Department of Psychology,
Australian National University,
Canberra, A C T 0200 Australia
The identifiability of strategies used by subjects in
assessing inverse probabilities is low, and not adequately
supported by using the simplest form of Bayes' Theorem. If subjects
are using more complex strategies, coherently or incoherently, then
we cannot readily deduce how they use base rate information, or if
they are substituting other information for it.
Base rate fallacy, Bayes' theorem, decision making,
ecological validity, ethics, fallacy, judgment, probability.
- Gregson, R. A. M. (1963) Some possible forms of lexicographic evaluation. Psychometrika, 28, 173-183.
- Koehler, Jonathan J. (1993) The Base Rate Fallacy Myth. PSYCOLOQUY 4(49) base-rate.1
- Walley, P. (1991) Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. London: Chapman and Hall.