Robert A. M. Gregson (1993) Which Bayesian Theorem Could be Compared With Real Behaviour? . Psycoloquy: 4(50) Base Rate (2)

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Commentary on Koehler on Base-Rate

Department of Psychology,

Australian National University,

Canberra, A C T 0200 Australia

robert.gregson@anu.edu.au

The identifiability of strategies used by subjects in assessing inverse probabilities is low, and not adequately supported by using the simplest form of Bayes' Theorem. If subjects are using more complex strategies, coherently or incoherently, then we cannot readily deduce how they use base rate information, or if they are substituting other information for it.

- Gregson, R. A. M. (1963) Some possible forms of lexicographic evaluation. Psychometrika, 28, 173-183.
- Koehler, Jonathan J. (1993) The Base Rate Fallacy Myth. PSYCOLOQUY 4(49) base-rate.1
- Walley, P. (1991) Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. London: Chapman and Hall.