Joachim Krueger (1998) The bet on Bias: a Foregone Conclusion?
. Psycoloquy: 9(46) Social Bias (1)
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Psycoloquy 9(46): The bet on Bias: a Foregone Conclusion?
THE BET ON BIAS: A FOREGONE CONCLUSION?
Target Article by Krueger on Social Bias
Department of Psychology
Brown University, Box 1853
Providence, RI 02912
Social psychology has painted a picture of human
misbehavior and irrational thinking. For example, prominent social
cognitive biases are said to distort consensus estimation, self
perception, and causal attribution. The thesis of this target
article is that the roots of this negativistic paradigm lie in the
joint application of narrow normative theories and statistical
testing methods designed to reject those theories. Suggestions for
balancing the prevalent paradigm include (a) modifications to the
ruling rituals of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing, (b)
revisions of what is considered a normative response, and (c)
increased emphasis on individual differences in judgment.
Bayes' rule, bias, hypothesis testing, individual
differences probability, rationality, significance testing, social
cognition, statistical inference